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斗鱼8月以来上涨近14% 金价为何重现升势？_我的网站
A | "The accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO constitutes a test of loyalty to the western bloc, in particular to the US and Great Britain, which are the real geopolitical and geostrategic beneficiaries of the ongoing conflict," said Dr. Tiberio Graziani, chairman of Vision & Global Trends International Institute for Global Analyses.,The two Nordic countries' neutrality differs. Sweden had not joined a military alliance or participated in any war since 1814, with its neutrality being flexible, self-declared and not enshrined in law, as the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars noted in its 2 February 2022 study.,In contrast, Finland's neutrality was stipulated by the Paris Peace Treaty of 1947 which was signed after the end of the Second World War between the Allied powers - including the USSR, the UK, the US and France - and former Nazi Germany allies, such as Italy, Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria and Finland.,"This definitely appears to be a violation of Finland’s international agreements signed after WWII with the Soviet Union then later Russia," said Earl Rasmussen, executive vice-president of Eurasia Group, citing the 1947 treaty as well as the 1992 Russo-Finnish treaty.,It raises questions as to whether benefits from the abandoned neutrality will outweigh potential security risks for the two Nordic states.,"I am puzzled by how this inclusion will provide increased security, it appears it will likely further deteriorate relations between Russia and the EU and more specifically with Finland and Sweden," Rasmussen said. "Strategically, I am not sure what the real impact will be. Essentially, both Finland and Sweden are de facto NATO members to include coordination and joint exercises. However, tensions will likely increase and increased defensive measures will likely occur in Russia’s northern regions as well as Kaliningrad.",Why Finland & Sweden’s NATO Admission Is So Important to the US16 May, 19:17 GMT,What Do Finns and Swedes Think About NATO Membership?,Meanwhile, popular support for NATO membership in both Nordic states has never been high.,According to a 2021 poll commissioned by EVA Finnish Business and Policy Forum, around 26% of Finns were in favor of joining NATO, 40% against and 33% remained undecided. A January 2022 Demoskop survey showed 42% of Swedes supporting NATO accession and 37% of respondents opposed it.,The Russian special operation in Ukraine is said to have invigorated NATO proponents in both Nordic countries. Rasmussen noted that recent surveys in Finland have shown a spike in support up to 76%. However, in Sweden, support to join NATO has remained relatively low, climbing to just 47%, according to him.,Meanwhile, unlike Sweden, Finland shares a 1,340 km (830 mi) border with Russia and has maintained longstanding economic relations with Moscow for decades. As of 2019, Finland imported around 60% of its energy from Russia with the latter being the fourth largest importer of Finnish goods in 2017, according to the Wilson Center. Furthermore, Russian speakers constitute the third largest ethnic group in the Nordic country.,Putin: If NATO Infrastructure is Deployed to Finland & Sweden, Russia Will Respond in ‘Mirror Way’01:02 GMT,"Even during the Cold War, both states were neutral and non-NATO members, with Finland developing strong economic and trade relations with Russia," the Eurasia Group vice-president explained. "As trade degrades and energy sharing diminishes there will likely be a strain placed on the economies, mostly with Finland.",Moscow has repeatedly underscored that Russia harbors no hostile intentions against either Nordic country, yet also signaling that the latest NATO expansion will not make the continent more stable or secure. Earlier this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized that the Kremlin has "nothing that could worry us in terms of Finland or Sweden's membership in NATO," adding, however, that if military equipment or troops are deployed along the border, Moscow will have to "respond in a mirror manner and create the same threats in the territories from which they threaten us.",There is yet another controversy surrounding Sweden and Finland's accession to the western military bloc: neither Nordic state has held a popular referendum to find out whether the public has really weighed all the pros and cons of NATO membership.,"Political leadership in both countries is taking a certain degree of risk to push forward the joining without a public referendum," Rasmussen said. "I am sure Washington and Brussels realize that risk.",In addition to that, NATO accession may increase political polarization in both Nordic states, according to the Eurasia Group vice-president. In particular, "the Finnish government is made up of several political parties with no single party having a clear majority, hence requiring partnerships being established," he noted, adding that worsening economic conditions could "potentially create divisions politically and thus alignments could easily change.",Meanwhile, the Swedish left has lashed out at the government and the Social Democrats over Stockholm's NATO admission deal with Ankara. According to Expressen, the Greens and the Left Party are mooting a no-confidence vote against Foreign Minister Ann Linde.,Bank of England Head: UK To Face More Inflation Than Other Major Economies10:47 GMT,Why NATO's 2% Requirement Appears Unrealistic Today,NATO rules may trigger further controversy as they will require Sweden and Finland to spend 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) on their defense budgets. Even though the Nordic countries have committed to reaching the benchmark by 2024, the long-term viability of their promises is in question, given skyrocketing inflation in Europe.,Inflation in Finland has recently risen to its highest level in over 30 years, hitting 7.1% in May. In April, the country's consumer price index (CPI), a popular gauge for inflation, stood at 5.7%, according to Statistics Finland.,Likewise, annual inflation in Sweden jumped from 6.4% in April to 7.3% in May, according to the country's Consumer Price Index with fixed interest rate (CPIF).,"To this end, just as the Ukrainian people are sacrificed, so the economies of European countries will be sacrificed, including Finland and Sweden," forecast Graziani. "Very difficult economic and social months await us in Europe. It will be a very hot autumn. Political crises in various countries of the European Union are likely to be hypothesized.",EU member states, the UK and the US are taking efforts to tame galloping inflation which throws their capability of adhering to NATO requirements into question. To complicate matters further, the UK is calling to step up funding and arming of Ukraine "until victory" amid the Russian special operation.,"The US and UK are using the conflict in Ukraine to pressure greater EU involvement and support to include NATO contributions," said Rasmussen. "While it is being projected that member states will meet their 2% objectives by 2024, based on developing economic conditions and a pending recession, I question the realism of that projection. Increasing real contributions for defense along with rising tensions between the EU and Russia may prove challenging as economic conditions worsen resulting in political disruptions across Europe.",Meanwhile, the US is not in its best shape either, according to Rasmussen. The country steadily moves forward into a potentially deep recession; increased tensions with China; emerging challenges in Latin America; tensions with Iran; and economic challenges at home. The scholar believes that it is likely one will see a major political change in the US in 2022 midterms, in 2024 and beyond.,What’s more, as the Republican Party becomes increasingly influenced by MAGA supporters, Trump's skepticism towards the NATO alliance may get a second wind in 2024. And this raises further questions about the future of the Cold War-era military bloc.。
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C | Wind数据显示，8月24日，国际黄金现货价格（以伦敦金现货价格为例）盘中最高触及4659.96美元/盎司，当日涨幅接近1%，创今年5月份以来新高。拉长时间看，截至8月21日收盘，8月份以来伦敦金现货价格已上涨13.89%。与此形成对比的是，今年上半年，伦敦金现货价格在1月末创出历史新高后便持续回调，整体录得下跌7.20%。 国际黄金期货价格也同步走高，COMEX黄金期货价格8月24日盘中最高触及4716.7美元/盎司，突破4700美元/盎司关口。截至8月21日收盘，8月份以来涨幅也达到13.50%。 金价缘何出现上行？领秀财经首席分析师刘思源在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，黄金价格短期上涨的主要原因是市场对美债实际利率与美元信用重估，市场预期美元贬值，由此引发金价被动上涨。
D | 刘思源认为，全球央行持续购金，使实物黄金需求成为中长线市场支撑。在美联储降息周期尚未完成之前，实际利率下行和美元信用重估提供了更多上升动力。
E | 从资金角度看下半年金价行情，财通证券日前发布的研报认为，整体来看，下半年黄金资金面边际改善，全球央行长期购金趋势不变、实际利率潜在下行预期带动ETF资金进场、投机资金低位回补，共同支撑金价。
F | 同时，报告称，考虑到每当美元全球储备占比回落，对应黄金储备占比显著抬升，未来各国央行购金趋势仍然强势，新兴市场购金仍有较大提升空间。 展望未来金价走势，瞿瑞认为，基准情景下，美国通胀缓慢回落、美联储维持高利率不变，金价中枢缓步上移至4500美元/盎司附近。乐观情景下，若美联储开启降息周期且全球央行购金加速，金价有望重返5000美元/盎司上方；悲观情景下，若国际地缘冲突升级推动油价冲高、通胀反弹叠加流动性收紧，金价或二次探底至3800美元/盎司。
G | （文章来源：证券日报）。
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如其所述，近期金价重拾升势，美元指数则转而回落。自7月末开始，美元指数持续承压，7月27日至8月21日，美元指数下跌2.58%，从101点高位回落至当前99点水平。 “当前金价的中长期底部主要是由美国财政信用、全球央行购金等结构性力量提供支撑；短期波动仍受实际利率、美元指数和流动性等因素影响。”东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监瞿瑞在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示。
